ارزیابی و محاسبه ی نرخ ریسک تجمیعی پروژه های پژوهش و توسعه تحت محیط فازی تصمیم گیری گروهی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

2 هیئت علمی دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

ارزیابی؛ مرحله ی مهمی در فرایند تصمیم گیری کمیته های تخصصی – پژوهشی سازمان های بزرگ و مراکز پژوهشی است که با عدم اطمینان ناشی از فقدان دانش و اطلاعات درباره اقدامات و پیامدهای آنها آمیخته شده است. یک رویکرد سنتی برای بیان عدم اطمینان در سیستم های گوناگون یا بررسی و ارزیابی پروژه های پژوهش و توسعه ریسک است که در گذشته از طریق تئوری احتمال مدل سازی می شد. با طرح ایده ی تئوری مجموعه های فازی؛ پژوهشگران مختلف از این تئوری برای تسخیر عدم اطمینان ها و مدل سازی آنها در فرایند ارزیابی و محاسبه ریسک تجمیعی توسعه ی نرم افزارها بهره برده اند. در این مقاله پژوهشگران روشی برای ارزیابی و محاسبه ی ریسک تجمیعی پروژه های پژوهش و توسعه با استفاده از تئوری مجموعه فازی طراحی شده اند. این روش برای محاسبه ی نرخ ریسک تجمیعی پروژه های پژوهش و توسعه مرکز تحقیقات مخابرات ایران اجرا شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluating and Computing the Rate of Aggregative Risk of R & D Projects under group Decision - making Fuzzy

نویسندگان [English]

  • sedigheh khorshid 1
  • caro locas 2

چکیده [English]

The evaluation of project is a important stage in the process of decision - making of research and expertise panels of the large organizations and research centers. It is mixed with uncertainty which arise  from incomplete and no obtainable information and knowledge about actions and their consequences. Risk is a traditional approach for expressing uncertainty in the different systems or reviewing and evaluating R & D projects. In the past, the risk is modeled by probability theory. Since, professor Zadeh hase innovated the opinion of fuzzy sets theory, different researchers used its for capturing uncertainties and modeling theirs in the process of evaluation and computation the rate of aggregative risk in software development. In this paper, we design a methodology for evaluating and computing the rate of aggregative risk of R & D projects based on fuzzy sets theory. The proposed methodology has several advantages:
1- It provide a more realistic evaluation from research projects by using linguistic approach.
2- It provide the requirement flexibility for selecting of research projects with inserting the concepts of fuzzy majority of dominance and fuzzy majority of experts by using  OWA operator.
3- It define different optimum degrees for considering different approaches of decision - making better, more flexible and satisfactory decisions under conditions of uncertainty and reached consensus on the selected choices. This methodology is implemented at Iran telecommunication Research center.

to all levels allows every one to understand how to contribute to the strategy. In our view the notion that strategy is something that can be planned well in advance by managers and then executed by other people is not consistent with today's dynamic and rapidly changing environment. So we introduced a discipline with two main features: developing personnel knowledge incrementally toward new paradigms; and use an iterative framework to implement strategy; just one stage after planning, through a learning cycle. Here the main focus is creating collaboration, synergy and commitment to implement strategy, in all personnel. Our experience about implementing this discipline in SAIRAN in late 2004 is presented. We assess it as a dynamic and evolutionary process that succeed to involve near
200 people directly and 3500 people indirectly and align their capabilities and capacities to draw vision and contribute to strategic planning, whom will be the core members of execution in next step.


دوره 13، شماره 49
بهار 1385
صفحه 107-130
  • تاریخ دریافت: 05 مهر 1395
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 05 مهر 1395